For riding-level estimates, hover over the map below.
Detailed information for each riding are available through the navigation bar above, organized by region.



Ajax
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 157.2% |
| Liberal | 42.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.1% |
| Liberal | 32.8% |
| NDP | 21.7% |
| Other | 4.4% |
| Green | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 52.2% |
| Liberal | 26.9% |
| NDP | 12.4% |
| Other | 4.3% |
| Green | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton Centre
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 194.9% |
| NDP | 4.9% |
| Liberal | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.9% |
| NDP | 27.3% |
| Liberal | 22.5% |
| Other | 8.2% |
| Green | 5.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton East
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 116.0% |
| PC | 83.5% |
| Liberal | 0.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 35.6% |
| PC | 34.5% |
| Liberal | 23.0% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Green | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 181.3% |
| Liberal | 12.1% |
| NDP | 6.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.5% |
| Liberal | 27.8% |
| NDP | 27.0% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton South
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.7% |
| Liberal | 0.3% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 39.3% |
| Liberal | 24.2% |
| NDP | 23.9% |
| Other | 6.4% |
| Green | 6.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton West
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 196.8% |
| NDP | 2.6% |
| Liberal | 0.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 39.2% |
| NDP | 27.9% |
| Liberal | 24.6% |
| Green | 4.4% |
| Other | 3.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Burlington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 180.3% |
| Liberal | 19.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.8% |
| Liberal | 30.7% |
| NDP | 19.7% |
| Green | 7.1% |
| Other | 4.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Durham
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.4% |
| NDP | 23.1% |
| Liberal | 22.3% |
| Green | 6.5% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.0% |
| NDP | 24.3% |
| Liberal | 20.0% |
| Green | 7.3% |
| Other | 6.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton Centre
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 50.6% |
| PC | 16.6% |
| Liberal | 15.4% |
| Green | 10.2% |
| Other | 7.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 189.1% |
| PC | 10.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 37.6% |
| PC | 28.8% |
| Liberal | 16.2% |
| Other | 10.2% |
| Green | 7.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton Mountain
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 194.9% |
| PC | 5.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 41.7% |
| PC | 30.0% |
| Liberal | 12.9% |
| Green | 9.0% |
| Other | 6.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 106.6% |
| PC | 77.8% |
| Liberal | 15.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 31.4% |
| PC | 30.6% |
| Liberal | 26.1% |
| Green | 6.9% |
| Other | 5.0% |
Simulation outcomes
King—Vaughan
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 52.2% |
| Liberal | 28.8% |
| NDP | 10.5% |
| Green | 5.3% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Stouffville
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 195.1% |
| Liberal | 4.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.3% |
| Liberal | 32.0% |
| NDP | 13.8% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Thornhill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.1% |
| Liberal | 0.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.1% |
| Liberal | 30.5% |
| NDP | 14.7% |
| Other | 4.0% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Unionville
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 59.6% |
| Liberal | 23.0% |
| NDP | 11.7% |
| Green | 3.4% |
| Other | 2.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Milton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 122.9% |
| Liberal | 77.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.0% |
| Liberal | 36.2% |
| NDP | 15.0% |
| Green | 7.7% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga Centre
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 174.1% |
| Liberal | 25.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.3% |
| Liberal | 31.1% |
| NDP | 18.6% |
| Other | 9.0% |
| Green | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 109.9% |
| Liberal | 90.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.1% |
| Liberal | 36.4% |
| NDP | 15.2% |
| Other | 6.1% |
| Green | 5.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 179.8% |
| Liberal | 20.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.5% |
| Liberal | 31.5% |
| NDP | 18.8% |
| Other | 6.9% |
| Green | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 146.0% |
| PC | 54.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.0% |
| PC | 38.0% |
| NDP | 12.1% |
| Green | 4.5% |
| Other | 3.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Malton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 195.9% |
| Liberal | 3.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.8% |
| Liberal | 25.4% |
| NDP | 22.1% |
| Other | 13.9% |
| Green | 2.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Streetsville
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 185.4% |
| Liberal | 14.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.5% |
| Liberal | 32.0% |
| NDP | 17.7% |
| Other | 5.4% |
| Green | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Newmarket—Aurora
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.4% |
| Liberal | 0.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.3% |
| Liberal | 28.3% |
| NDP | 16.3% |
| Green | 5.6% |
| Other | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Niagara Centre
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 163.2% |
| NDP | 36.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.6% |
| NDP | 32.6% |
| Liberal | 15.9% |
| Other | 7.6% |
| Green | 6.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Niagara Falls
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 124.2% |
| PC | 75.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.9% |
| PC | 38.0% |
| Liberal | 13.4% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Niagara West
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.8% |
| NDP | 21.6% |
| Liberal | 13.9% |
| Green | 9.3% |
| Other | 3.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Oakville
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 141.9% |
| PC | 58.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 43.0% |
| PC | 39.3% |
| NDP | 11.0% |
| Green | 5.3% |
| Other | 1.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Oakville North—Burlington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 197.2% |
| Liberal | 2.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 43.7% |
| Liberal | 30.6% |
| NDP | 16.9% |
| Green | 5.9% |
| Other | 2.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Oshawa
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 187.5% |
| NDP | 12.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 43.2% |
| NDP | 34.2% |
| Liberal | 11.0% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Pickering—Uxbridge
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.0% |
| Liberal | 1.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.7% |
| Liberal | 26.3% |
| NDP | 22.8% |
| Green | 6.4% |
| Other | 3.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Richmond Hill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 194.8% |
| Liberal | 5.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.4% |
| Liberal | 34.5% |
| NDP | 11.8% |
| Green | 4.5% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes
St. Catharines
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 107.4% |
| Liberal | 85.3% |
| NDP | 7.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 32.3% |
| Liberal | 31.6% |
| NDP | 25.9% |
| Green | 6.0% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Thornhill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 57.6% |
| Liberal | 18.7% |
| NDP | 13.5% |
| Other | 6.7% |
| Green | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 168.7% |
| Liberal | 31.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.0% |
| Liberal | 39.0% |
| NDP | 9.8% |
| Green | 3.5% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Whitby
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.1% |
| NDP | 27.1% |
| Liberal | 17.4% |
| Green | 5.8% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Barrie—Innisfil
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.7% |
| NDP | 20.1% |
| Liberal | 16.0% |
| Green | 11.6% |
| Other | 4.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.3% |
| NDP | 19.2% |
| Green | 18.3% |
| Liberal | 16.8% |
| Other | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.0% |
| NDP | 16.6% |
| Liberal | 15.4% |
| Green | 9.4% |
| Other | 7.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Dufferin—Caledon
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 48.1% |
| Green | 19.2% |
| Liberal | 15.1% |
| NDP | 13.6% |
| Other | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.6% |
| NDP | 18.8% |
| Liberal | 12.8% |
| Green | 7.3% |
| Other | 6.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 196.3% |
| Liberal | 3.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.2% |
| Liberal | 30.1% |
| NDP | 16.8% |
| Green | 7.1% |
| Other | 3.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Perth—Wellington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.1% |
| NDP | 22.0% |
| Liberal | 14.1% |
| Green | 9.6% |
| Other | 5.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Peterborough—Kawartha
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 159.5% |
| Liberal | 40.2% |
| NDP | 0.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.6% |
| Liberal | 31.9% |
| NDP | 24.2% |
| Green | 5.5% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Simcoe—Grey
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 53.1% |
| Liberal | 18.3% |
| NDP | 15.5% |
| Green | 11.1% |
| Other | 2.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Simcoe North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.9% |
| Liberal | 22.7% |
| NDP | 19.8% |
| Green | 10.9% |
| Other | 1.6% |
Simulation outcomes
York—Simcoe
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.3% |
| Liberal | 17.6% |
| NDP | 16.7% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Bay of Quinte
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.9% |
| NDP | 23.0% |
| Liberal | 19.5% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 4.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Carleton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.4% |
| Liberal | 24.0% |
| NDP | 15.3% |
| Other | 7.1% |
| Green | 6.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 114.5% |
| PC | 85.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 37.9% |
| PC | 36.7% |
| NDP | 14.4% |
| Other | 6.6% |
| Green | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.8% |
| NDP | 23.7% |
| Liberal | 15.5% |
| Green | 7.2% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Kanata—Carleton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.8% |
| Liberal | 20.5% |
| NDP | 19.4% |
| Other | 13.3% |
| Green | 8.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Kingston and the Islands
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 177.9% |
| NDP | 20.8% |
| PC | 1.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 35.0% |
| NDP | 27.5% |
| PC | 24.9% |
| Green | 10.3% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.7% |
| NDP | 21.9% |
| Liberal | 13.9% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 5.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 58.8% |
| Liberal | 17.2% |
| NDP | 14.0% |
| Green | 7.8% |
| Other | 2.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Nepean
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.8% |
| Liberal | 24.9% |
| NDP | 19.9% |
| Green | 8.3% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Orléans
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 198.4% |
| PC | 1.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.8% |
| PC | 31.6% |
| NDP | 14.5% |
| Green | 3.8% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa Centre
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 180.8% |
| NDP | 19.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.0% |
| NDP | 32.6% |
| PC | 15.5% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa South
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 200.0% |
| PC | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 48.1% |
| PC | 26.7% |
| NDP | 18.3% |
| Green | 4.7% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa—Vanier
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 50.7% |
| NDP | 19.4% |
| PC | 18.9% |
| Green | 6.1% |
| Other | 4.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa West—Nepean
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 171.3% |
| PC | 28.5% |
| NDP | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 36.7% |
| PC | 30.8% |
| NDP | 22.4% |
| Green | 6.1% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 66.9% |
| Liberal | 12.7% |
| NDP | 12.0% |
| Green | 4.9% |
| Other | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 59.9% |
| Liberal | 16.2% |
| NDP | 15.6% |
| Green | 6.1% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Algoma—Manitoulin
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 199.8% |
| PC | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 43.3% |
| PC | 24.7% |
| Other | 15.1% |
| Liberal | 11.0% |
| Green | 6.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Kenora—Rainy River
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.0% |
| NDP | 27.8% |
| Liberal | 14.3% |
| Green | 6.0% |
| Other | 2.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Nickel Belt
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 50.1% |
| PC | 23.7% |
| Liberal | 12.6% |
| Other | 8.0% |
| Green | 5.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Nipissing
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.3% |
| NDP | 27.4% |
| Liberal | 10.7% |
| Other | 6.8% |
| Green | 4.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 177.9% |
| Green | 22.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.8% |
| Green | 36.1% |
| NDP | 17.4% |
| Other | 3.7% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Sault Ste. Marie
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 197.6% |
| NDP | 2.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.2% |
| NDP | 29.4% |
| Liberal | 13.1% |
| Other | 11.0% |
| Green | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Sudbury
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 161.4% |
| Liberal | 38.5% |
| PC | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 34.9% |
| Liberal | 29.5% |
| PC | 22.9% |
| Green | 6.9% |
| Other | 5.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 199.8% |
| NDP | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.6% |
| NDP | 24.9% |
| PC | 21.6% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Green | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 48.6% |
| NDP | 25.0% |
| PC | 16.4% |
| Other | 5.6% |
| Green | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Timiskaming—Cochrane
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 200.0% |
| PC | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 46.3% |
| PC | 23.2% |
| Other | 13.5% |
| Liberal | 12.5% |
| Green | 4.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Timmins
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 199.5% |
| PC | 0.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 54.3% |
| PC | 33.4% |
| Other | 8.5% |
| Green | 3.8% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Kiiwetinoong
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 193.1% |
| PC | 6.6% |
| Liberal | 0.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 37.1% |
| PC | 27.6% |
| Liberal | 20.6% |
| Green | 10.7% |
| Other | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 186.8% |
| PC | 13.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.5% |
| PC | 31.2% |
| Liberal | 19.9% |
| Other | 6.3% |
| Green | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Brantford—Brant
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 197.2% |
| NDP | 2.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.7% |
| NDP | 29.9% |
| Liberal | 12.7% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 7.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Cambridge
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 150.3% |
| Liberal | 49.1% |
| NDP | 0.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 31.5% |
| Liberal | 28.3% |
| NDP | 21.8% |
| Green | 9.6% |
| Other | 8.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 53.4% |
| NDP | 27.1% |
| Liberal | 11.2% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.9% |
| NDP | 23.9% |
| Liberal | 9.9% |
| Green | 6.6% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Essex
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 180.1% |
| NDP | 19.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.5% |
| NDP | 37.3% |
| Liberal | 7.9% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Guelph
Safe Green
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Green | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Green | 57.8% |
| PC | 16.7% |
| NDP | 12.1% |
| Liberal | 10.3% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Haldimand—Norfolk
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.0% |
| NDP | 19.2% |
| Liberal | 11.9% |
| Other | 7.1% |
| Green | 6.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Huron—Bruce
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.4% |
| NDP | 21.0% |
| Liberal | 18.4% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener Centre
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 147.2% |
| Liberal | 28.3% |
| PC | 24.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 30.8% |
| PC | 26.7% |
| Liberal | 25.9% |
| Green | 11.1% |
| Other | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener—Conestoga
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 193.1% |
| NDP | 6.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 34.5% |
| NDP | 26.1% |
| Liberal | 17.6% |
| Other | 11.4% |
| Green | 10.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 198.3% |
| NDP | 1.6% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.6% |
| NDP | 26.4% |
| Liberal | 19.3% |
| Green | 12.3% |
| Other | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 56.0% |
| NDP | 24.8% |
| Liberal | 8.5% |
| Green | 5.6% |
| Other | 5.1% |
Simulation outcomes
London—Fanshawe
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 194.6% |
| PC | 5.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 43.4% |
| PC | 31.6% |
| Liberal | 11.9% |
| Green | 8.1% |
| Other | 4.9% |
Simulation outcomes
London North Centre
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 158.7% |
| PC | 41.1% |
| Liberal | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 35.7% |
| PC | 31.5% |
| Liberal | 21.5% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
London West
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 196.0% |
| PC | 4.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 42.9% |
| PC | 30.6% |
| Liberal | 14.0% |
| Green | 6.7% |
| Other | 5.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Oxford
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.6% |
| NDP | 22.0% |
| Liberal | 9.1% |
| Green | 7.2% |
| Other | 7.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Sarnia—Lambton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.1% |
| NDP | 28.2% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Liberal | 6.1% |
| Other | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Waterloo
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 172.5% |
| PC | 27.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 38.7% |
| PC | 32.7% |
| Liberal | 17.0% |
| Green | 8.5% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Wellington—Halton Hills
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.5% |
| NDP | 16.9% |
| Liberal | 16.3% |
| Green | 13.9% |
| Other | 1.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Windsor—Tecumseh
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 199.3% |
| PC | 0.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 45.6% |
| PC | 28.8% |
| Liberal | 11.6% |
| Green | 8.0% |
| Other | 5.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Windsor West
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 193.0% |
| PC | 7.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 40.1% |
| PC | 29.8% |
| Liberal | 20.6% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Beaches—East York
Likely NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 105.6% |
| NDP | 94.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 35.0% |
| NDP | 34.4% |
| PC | 17.9% |
| Green | 7.0% |
| Other | 5.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Davenport
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 199.1% |
| Liberal | 0.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 46.4% |
| Liberal | 26.2% |
| PC | 16.9% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley East
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 198.2% |
| PC | 1.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.3% |
| PC | 30.5% |
| NDP | 18.7% |
| Green | 3.9% |
| Other | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 136.4% |
| Liberal | 63.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.9% |
| Liberal | 37.9% |
| NDP | 14.1% |
| Green | 4.0% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley West
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 194.1% |
| PC | 5.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.5% |
| PC | 34.4% |
| NDP | 12.4% |
| Green | 4.2% |
| Other | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Eglinton—Lawrence
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 186.7% |
| PC | 13.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.3% |
| PC | 36.4% |
| NDP | 12.1% |
| Green | 3.7% |
| Other | 1.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke Centre
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 134.8% |
| PC | 65.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 41.4% |
| PC | 38.5% |
| NDP | 12.0% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Green | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 170.6% |
| Liberal | 29.4% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.0% |
| Liberal | 31.3% |
| NDP | 23.4% |
| Green | 5.9% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 200.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.7% |
| Liberal | 23.6% |
| NDP | 18.1% |
| Green | 4.6% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Humber River—Black Creek
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 175.7% |
| PC | 16.7% |
| NDP | 7.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 35.3% |
| PC | 28.7% |
| NDP | 26.2% |
| Other | 7.3% |
| Green | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Parkdale—High Park
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 199.7% |
| Liberal | 0.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 46.0% |
| Liberal | 24.0% |
| PC | 19.0% |
| Green | 8.3% |
| Other | 2.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Agincourt
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 191.6% |
| Liberal | 8.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.8% |
| Liberal | 34.4% |
| NDP | 11.7% |
| Other | 5.4% |
| Green | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough Centre
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 189.1% |
| Liberal | 10.7% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.0% |
| Liberal | 27.7% |
| NDP | 23.0% |
| Other | 9.7% |
| Green | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Guildwood
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 193.0% |
| PC | 7.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 39.8% |
| PC | 29.7% |
| NDP | 18.2% |
| Other | 8.6% |
| Green | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.2% |
| Liberal | 28.4% |
| NDP | 17.3% |
| Green | 2.6% |
| Other | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 193.8% |
| Liberal | 4.5% |
| NDP | 1.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.8% |
| Liberal | 27.4% |
| NDP | 26.1% |
| Other | 4.7% |
| Green | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough Southwest
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 134.2% |
| PC | 59.5% |
| Liberal | 6.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 33.9% |
| PC | 31.6% |
| Liberal | 25.7% |
| Green | 4.6% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Spadina—Fort York
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 152.8% |
| Liberal | 47.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 36.6% |
| Liberal | 31.8% |
| PC | 21.9% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Toronto Centre
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 134.5% |
| Liberal | 65.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.2% |
| Liberal | 36.1% |
| PC | 14.1% |
| Other | 5.4% |
| Green | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Toronto—Danforth
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 200.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 50.5% |
| Liberal | 20.2% |
| PC | 17.0% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 199.5% |
| NDP | 0.5% |
| PC | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.1% |
| NDP | 25.0% |
| PC | 24.8% |
| Green | 5.1% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes
University—Rosedale
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 171.5% |
| Liberal | 28.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 36.1% |
| Liberal | 29.2% |
| PC | 20.9% |
| Green | 9.0% |
| Other | 5.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Willowdale
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 179.5% |
| Liberal | 20.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.9% |
| Liberal | 33.3% |
| NDP | 17.8% |
| Other | 4.4% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
York Centre
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 199.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.7% |
| Liberal | 26.6% |
| NDP | 16.1% |
| Other | 7.0% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
York South—Weston
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 152.6% |
| PC | 44.9% |
| NDP | 2.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 36.2% |
| PC | 32.1% |
| NDP | 25.9% |
| Green | 4.2% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes